VisionIAS - Video Classroom Lecture

International Relations Class 01

CONTINUATION OF WEST-ASIA (09:12 AM)

Arab-Israel Peace Treaties
a) Camp David Accord, 1918
b) Oslo Accord,1993
Israel-Jordan Treaty, 1944: normalize their bilateral ties. Defined Jordan's western Border and restored occupied land to Jordan.
c) Middle East Quartet (2002)
UN, EU, USA and Russia helped with Middle East negotiations and for international set-up.
d) Abraham Accord, 2020:
Israel, UAE, Sudan, Morocco and Bahrain.
Israel agreed to diplomatic ties with all along with economic, technological and cultural cooperation.
Saudi Arabia and Iran Agreement:
Al-Nimr, executed by Saudi
Saudi embassy attacked in Tehran
Saudi-Iran diplomatic ties suspended (2016)
Reasons for Saudi-Arabia:
a) West Asia strategic realignment
b) US de-prioritising West Asia as it is more focused on Indo-Pacific
c) US-Saudi Arabia bilateral ties--> Quincey agreement 1945--> US assured security guarantees to Saudi Arabia in return for Saudi oil.
Today US is one of the top oil producers and is not dependent on Saudi Oil.
When Saudi Oil facilities were attacked in 2019, the US looked away.
Iran's reasons:
Tough Economic Isolation--> Iran's Economy and currency are deteriorating. To deal with Saudi will open economic lifelines for Iran. This agreement could complicate the American efforts to rally Arabs and Israel against Iran.
China's Reasons:
a) China has good ties with Saudi and Iran and is a leading buyer of Saudi oil.
b) The agreement between Saudi and Iran will bring stability to West Asia and favourably impact global energy supplies that benefit China.
c) This is the arrival of China as a great Power in West Asia.
The US is trying to bring two of its allies: Israel and Saudi Arabia and China is already plotting an American ally Saudi and an American enemy Iran.
This is China's message to the global south that the US is arming Ukraine and contributing to war and it is China that is contributing to peace.
IMEC:
G20 Delhi Summit, 2023
To develop a Rail and shipping corridor connecting India to Europe via the Middle East.
Rail Connectivity
It has shipping lines
High-speed data cables
Energy pipelines
It has 2 separate corridors: the East corridor that connects India to the Arabian Gulf and the Northern corridor that connects the Arabian Gulf to Europe.
According to the MoU, The IMEC is expected to stimulate economic development through enhanced connectivity and economic integration between Asia, the Arabian Gulf, and Europe.
This corridor will secure regional supply chains, increase trade accessibility, improve trade facilitation, and support an increased emphasis on environmental social, and government impacts.
The corridor is estimated to cut the journey time from India to Europe by 40% and slash transit costs by 30%.
However, there are speculations that multiple handling of cargo and multi-nation transit would increase carriage and compliance costs.
Therefore, it is critical to quantify the economic advantages of the corridor to attract more stakeholders.
A robust financial framework needs to be in place: Since there are no binding financial commitments on any of the signatories of the corridor, investments will have to be attracted from governments, international organisations, and private sector entities.
Lastly, a comprehensive multi-nation operational framework is needed. As the corridor involves facilitating trade across different legal systems, a multi-national framework is necessary.

MAP LOCATION: (10:00 AM)

LOCATION	DESCRIPTION
Gaza	The Gaza Strip is a coastal Palestinian region along the Mediterranean Sea, bordered by Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.
Rafah Crossing	It is the southernmost post of exit from Gaza and borders Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.
West Bank	This territory is landlocked and is bordered by Israel and Jordan, with the Dead Sea marking part of its boundary. A section of Jerusalem is within the West Bank. The region is governed by Fatah, previously recognised as the Palestinian National Liberation Movement.
Jerusalem	Located on a plateau in the Judean Mountains between the Mediterranean Sea and the Dead Sea. It's roughly in the centre of Israel and is bordered by several Palestinian territories. Jerusalem is divided into several districts: Jewish-majority West Jerusalem and the predominantly Palestinian East Jerusalem, which includes the Old City. It holds profound significance for three major world religions: Judaism, Christianity, and Islam.

I2U2 (10:23 AM)

I2U2 is a minilateral organisation--> easy to build consensus.
The I2U2 Group is a new strategic partnership formed between India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. It is also referred to as the West Asian Quad/Middle East Quad/New Quad.
It is an economic alliance but goes hand in hand with geo-politics too. It is mostly focused on technology, climate, COVID-19, trade, and security.
India has a decent presence in the Middle East, It is a huge buyer of energy.
India supplied consumer goods in large quantities.
The Western IOR has critical sea lines of communication and important geographical choke points at Bab-al-Mandeb and the Suez Canal.
Therefore, this region has abundant opportunities for India.
It is an opportunity for India to present itself as a reliable strategic, developmental partner in west-Asia.
India can also have strong multiple strategic partnerships with the West Asian countries.
In I2U2, integrated food parks are being developed across India to increase crop yield and conserve water.
Issues:
a) Israel may use this minilateral against Iran which is not India's purpose.
b) USA may use this to de-couple Israel and UAE from China.
c) This may lead to a nexus of China-Iran-Russia. Further, Isolate Iran is an opportunity for China.
However, I2U2 is an ideal example of how a minilateral will enable India to establish both economic and security cooperation.

Syrian Civil War (10:50 AM)

Syria's Assad Regime:
2011- Syrian Civil War, in between Arab Spring/Jasmine revolution. --> anti-government protest
2015- Putin helped Assad and saved his government.
2016--> Frozen conflict.
Syria (Sunni majority) ---> Alawaite dominated the Power (Shia branch)--> favours Assad.
Ground of Multiple militias and Jihadist factions. (Free Syrian Army; ISIS; Jabhat Al-Nusra)
Islamic State was controlling Eastern Syria.
Al-Nusra and the Free Syrian Army controlling North Syria.
Russia played an important role in turning down the Syrian Civil War.
Kurdish Militias backed by the US fought ISIS.
In the East, the Syrian army was backed by Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas.
3 Main Actors in Syria:
a) Assad: backed by Russia, Iran and Shia militias, axis of resistance.
b) Syrian Democratic Forces: Umbrella militia group which has other militia like the Syrian Kurdish militia, YPG (people's protection force).
The YPG and the Assad regime agreed to the start of a Civil war.
The Kurdish militia and Assad regime do not target each other.
c) HTS: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)--> anti-government force.
Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (Turkey will never back Assad).
HTS is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani--> Al-Nusra Front.
Abu Bakar Al-Baghdad---> ISIS ---> with Al-Jolani being its close aid.
Baghdadi sent Jolani to fight Assad and Jolani set up Al-Nusra.
Later, Jolani fell out with Baghdadi and started to speedy build up his organisation (in between Baghdadi was killed).
Later when Al-Baghdadi was killed and Islamic State was created and ISIS was defeated, Jolani emerged as the face of anti Assad regime.
Al-Jolani changed Al-Nusra to Fateh-al-sham and then again changed into Hayat Tahir Al-sham.
Jolani is a US-designated terrorist but after establishing its rule he declared that he has no issues with the USA but has issues only with Assad.
Jolani always wanted to bring back Assad and geo-politics has shifted since 2015 with Russia involved in the Ukraine war. It has withdrawn 1000 of soldiers.
Hezbollah is fighting with Israel and so with Hamas and over the past years, several Iranian generals were killed in Syria by Israel.
Without direct support from Iran, Hezbollah and Russia- Assad became vulnerable and has fallen.
Jolani is careful not to upset Israel and the USA and both these countries are not targeting him either.
When the civil war was in a frozen state, HTS was preparing itself.
In November, HTS made its move and targeted Assad.

Significance of West Asia (11:40 AM)

a) Geopolitical interest: West Asia is crucial for India's connectivity to resource-rich central Asia.
b) West Asia itself lies at the centre of IMEC.
b) Geo-strategic: West Asia has a large source of Crude Oil reserves in the world. It plays an important role in India's energy security. It has several maritime choke points for trade.
c) Geo-economic: India is the largest recipient of foreign remittances --> of more than $40 billion.
India has developmental partnerships with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, mostly related to infrastructure investment funds and clean energy.
Good ties with West Asian countries help India counter Chinese influence in the region.
There are several conflict-prone zones in West Asia which results in political turmoil.
Cooperation with West Asian countries is important to counter radicalisation and the spread of terrorism.
India is home to the second largest Muslim population so therefore naturally has cultural ties with the West Asian region.
Indian diaspora in West Asia enhances India's soft power.

GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) (11:52 AM)

A political-economic alliance of 6 countries --Bahrain; Kuwait; Oman; Qatar; Saudi-Arabia; UAE
To promote economic security and cultural and social cooperation between these countries.
GCC remains India's largest regional bloc trading partner.
It comprises more than 15% of India's total trade of fiscal year 2022-23.
**Qatar sends more than 40% of its gas to India. (Qatar is India's largest source of liquefied natural gas (LNG).)
GCC accounts for more than 35% of India's oil imports and 70% of gas imports.

TOPIC FOR THE NEXT CLASS: WILL CONTINUE WITH INDIA-RUSSIA